Three years ago, I traded for Jorge Soler in my fantasy league over the offseason. Soler was just 24 at the time and showed a lot of promise. He hit 12 home runs in just 264 PAs, significantly increased his walks (7.9% to 11.7), and just as significantly decreased his strikeouts (30% to 25%). His BABIP was a mere .276, but he had a respectable season with the bat anyway. It was easy for me to assume that Soler was primed to break out in the next year — if not maybe two years — and, with a shallow outfield, I decided that dealing for him was a no-brainer.

The only problem was that I traded Luis Severino for him.

The silver lining of this regrettable, godawful deal was that I had the privilege of watching Jorge Soler struggle for the next two seasons thereafter, wallowing in self-pity as he bounced between Kansas City’s AAA affiliate, their Major League bench, and the IL, while Severino picked up two consecutive All-Star appearances and a $40M extension. But Soler finally picked up this past season — with production Kansas City has never seen before.

Before the season, the Royals had never seen a 40-home run season in the entirety of their 50-year history. Soler took pitchers deep 48 times in 2019, more than doubling his career total (38 in 307 games), and putting the Royals’ otherwise-mediocre lineup on his back. And have you watched this guy hit? It’s not like a lot of his homers are just getting past the wall into the first row. We’re talking bombs. 110-mile-an-hour liners. Violent dingers. Really just some seriously aggressive hacks. He’s realized his potential in his age-27 season, and it’s been fun to watch.

Soler’s 136 wRC+, 117 RBI, .923 OPS, and 3.6 WAR led all Royals hitters by significant margins. He barreled up on the ball 70 times, leading the Majors by four barrels. His 92.6 MPH exit velocity and 49.9% hard-hit percentage both rank among the 96th percentile in the league, and his ISO ranks sixth in the Majors. He’s been crushing fastballs (.473 xwOBA) and has steadily improved on his recognition of offspeed pitches (.385 xwOBA), though his ability to hit breaking pitches is still rough (.291 xwOBA). He’s tough to match up against in relief situations, as his bat was nearly as powerful against lefties (125 wRC+) as righties (140 wRC+).

It doesn’t seem like this will end up as an outlier year, either. Soler’s numbers show that this level of output is sustainable. His xSLG and xwOBA remain among elite company, in the 98th and 95th percentile of the league, respectively. Of course, Soler is still far from a perfect player. His defense is bad enough to keep him hidden at the DH spot. His baserunning isn’t tremendous, either. He’s still striking out 26.2% of the time, which is common among power-heavy hitters. He’s essentially the ultimate archetype of a Major League slugger in the juiced ball era. Still, Soler is one of the most productive bats in the league, and that’s absolutely a huge win for Kansas City — who may either trade him with a season on his contract remaining, or extend him considering he’s just 27 — and a win for me, who knew that Jorge Soler would be good all along.

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Rewind about 2-and-a-half years. Carmelo Anthony checks in a few minutes into the first quarter, his tenth time playing in the All-Star Game (and just his second time off the bench). His employer, the New York Knicks, are struggling for a late-seed playoff push — they’re just 23–34 by All-Star weekend — but you can’t pin the blame on Anthony. At this point, he’s averaging 23.4 points, 6 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game, carrying the offensive load for a team that struggled with injuries (and having a god-awful roster in the first place).

Today, we’re midway through August and the 35-year-old Anthony remains without a job. What happened since?

You can find much debate just about anywhere as to whether Carmelo belongs in the league today. For the past few offseasons, videos of him working out and making fadeaway jumpers over D-2 college sophomores have inspired hope that Anthony is still in All-Star form, but the results on the court have disagreed.

In the 17–18 season, Carmelo struggled season-long to find his role in Oklahoma City, playing alongside two ball-dominant stars in Russell Westbrook and Paul George. Used to an offense centered around him, he seemed to insist that OKC was similarly-structured, isolating just over 3 times per game and scoring at a 42.3% eFG%. While Melo would certainly have been better off-ball (51.6% eFG% in OKC spot-up situations), he had very Me7oish moments that would make any Thunder fan cringe in hindsight, taking over in moments that likely would have been better off had his All-Star teammates Russell Westbrook or Paul George closed them out.

After an uninspired first-round exit to the lower-seeded Utah Jazz and blessing us all with an amazingly-ironic quote, Melo found himself playing for the Houston Rockets on a league-minimum deal, coming off of the bench for a team desperately needing a spot-up scorer at the forward spot following the absences of Luc Mbah a Moute and Trevor Ariza.

He was cut in November.

Since then, we haven’t seen Carmelo on an NBA court, sans the one time he nearly shot a dead ball while sitting courtside at Dwyane Wade’s last game. So is Carmelo Anthony good enough to remain in the NBA? Or are the last moments of his otherwise-honorable career marred by underwhelming shot selection and an inability to adapt to the modern game?

In the short time Anthony spent with Houston, he found himself less useful than his teammates in the Rockets’ strict Moreyball offense. Where much of Anthony’s value earlier in his career stemmed from being able to attack off the dribble and create separation, Anthony’s game in Houston was marginalized to a strict diet of catch-and-shoot opportunities. This decision isn’t necessarily Houston’s fault — just refer to Anthony’s performances in OKC — but Anthony simply was not more effective as a catch-and-shoot scorer than much of the surrounding roster beside him.

In Houston’s catch-and-shoot opportunities, Carmelo scored at a 47.3 eFG%, or around the 40th percentile, according to NBA.com stats. This ranks below everyone on Houston’s roster but Gary Clark, Iman Shumpert, and Nene. To be an iffy shooter is one thing — to be a worse shooter than Kenneth Faried is another. Melo’s athleticism and fluidity on the court has been greatly diminished since his time in New York, as well: Melo’s average speed defensively ranked second-worst among all Rockets players, and his average speed offensively fit right at the bottom.

Melo’s greatest strengths lie among the least valuable skillsets in the modern era of the NBA, where ISO-heavy offenses and pull-up midrange shots have diminished considerably. Melo’s weaknesses — which include his defensive ineptitude and inability to fit (or want to fit) in a modern offense — have been exploited quickly by opposing teams over the past couple of years. I think we may have seen Carmelo’s last game in an NBA uniform — where he shot 1-for-11 in a loss to OKC. Stay Me7o.

The post Does Carmelo Anthony Have Any Value Left in the NBA? appeared first on The Spax.

After DH Khris Davis was placed on the injury list this past Friday, Mark Canha took his place in the lineup.

Historically speaking, Canha isn’t much of a stellar placeholder. Davis led the Majors in home runs last year, with 48 over 151 games. He’s hit at least 42 homers since joining Oakland before the 2016 season, and, over a 162-game pace, is on pace to keep his offensive dominance up.

Mark Canha isn’t necessarily bad — he’s just not Khris Davis. This year, however, he’s made significant improvements with the bat that might signify that the 30-year old utilityman could stick around somewhere in the lineup even after Davis returns.

To date, Mark Canha currently holds a .233/.360/.603 slash line with a 149 wRC+. He’s walking far more often than ever — his BB% currently stands at 13.8%, whereas his career average is just 7% — and striking out fewer times than each season since his rookie year in 2015 (21.2%, career average 22.9%). The number that jumps out most, however, is one that sumps his spectacular power surge up well — 8 home runs in just 88 plate appearances.

He’s watching pitches far more than ever, swinging at just 37.6% of all pitches, an 18% decrease from his career average — and, more importantly, swinging at just 20.5% outside of the zone, a tremendous 37% decrease from his career average. Canha’s hitting more fly balls, where 56.6% of his batted balls end up in the air. His launch angle currently stands at 22.8, a significant difference from his career average 15.6. Canha’s greatest weakness — hitting against right-handed pitchers (.227/.323/.343, 88 wRC+ in 2018) has been dismantled altogether this year (.216/.375/.649, 165 wRC+).

Canha’s recent surge — which includes 6 home runs in his past 10 games — has been enough to power the A’s through a hot streak, in which they have won their past eight contests in a row. This hot streak isn’t necessarily a sustainable one; 27% of his fly balls are leaving the yard, and his hitting metrics suggest that he “should” be hitting a .419 SLG, according to Statcast. He’s not necessarily making harder contact, either — his Hard Hit % hovers less than a percentage point above his career average, and a few ticks below last year’s. But Canha’s plate discipline is notably improved from years past, and he’s shown a statistically significant improvement overall from last year alone, where he still slugged decently (.249/.328/.449, 113 wRC+, 17 HR in 411 PA).

When Khris Davis returns from the IL and resumes his regular place at the DH, Canha may have shown enough to where he can start on a near-daily basis. Given Profar’s struggles at second base — where he’s made improvements offensively, yet continues to mismanage plays defensively — Oakland could be looking at starting Chad Pinder in his place, where Canha could take the reins in left field for Robbie Grossman for the time being. This would give Oakland a huge offensive boost as they move into the middle of the season, all while keeping their defense afloat. Canha’s numbers and Statcast data have proved that he’s worthy of regular plate appearances in the lineup.

This is just the tip of the iceberg, too. Mark Canha’s true value will fully be displayed when the MLB finally gets around to implementing bat flip data.

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