The history of the Portland Trail Blazers is not lacking in offensively skilled players at the guard position. From the sustained dominance of Clyde Drexler to the unrealized promise of Brandon Roy to the recent dynamic duo of Damian Lillard & CJ McCollum, the Blazers have been fortunate to consistently have guards that could be trusted to put up points reliably.
The Blazers picked up Anfernee Simons with the 24th overall pick of the 2018 NBA Draft, a reasonable position in the draft to take a gamble on a teenager with a ton of potential. Simons was drafted straight out of high school at just 18-years-old – naturally, he didn’t have expectations to be much of an instant contributor. Nonetheless, his talent was undeniable. While his slender frame and poor defense was criticized during draft season, these were traits that an 18-year-old could be excused for. Simons’ elite shooting along with his incredible speed, quickness and athleticism offered plenty reason for excitement.
As expected, Simons’ rookie season was not eventful. Up until the last game of the season, he had played in just 19 games for the Trail Blazers and averaged 2.0 points on 4.9 minutes per games. No one was expected a teenager to usurp a spot in the rotation from guards like Lillard, McCollum, Seth Curry, Nik Stauskas and Rodney Hood.
However, the Blazers gave us a tease of the future in their 2018-19 regular season finale.
Portland entered their final game of the regular season with a 52-29 record, slated to play the already eliminated Sacramento Kings. The Blazers had already clinched home-court advantage in the first round (the 3rd or 4th seed). Winning the game gave them a chance at the three seed, but when the team announced that Lillard and McCollum would sit due to “load management,” it appeared that they were content with entering the postseason with the four seed and a likely postseason matchup against the Utah Jazz. Or maybe they just wanted the rest for their stars and didn’t particularly care about the matchup. In any case, Anfernee Simons would start the first game of his career.
In a wild game in which they fielded just six players and trailed by as many as 28 points, the Blazers rallied back behind a stunning 37 points, 9 assists, and 6 rebounds from the 19-year-old Anfernee Simons. Simons played a full 48 minutes and shot 13-21 from the field and 7-11 from deep in his first career start to unexpectedly secure the three seed for the Blazers. In his breakout game, Simons was efficient from every spot on the floor and created shots for his teammates like a seasoned vet despite entering the draft with playmaking concerns. Oh, and the win ended up working out as far as seeding goes – the Blazers went as far as the Western Conference Finals.
Over the next two seasons, Simons played 134 games and maintained a consistent 8/1/2 average statline. He remained a distant guard in the rotation, but steadily showed progress – his 2020-21 season saw an uptick in efficiency as his 3P% jumped to 42.6%. The young guard was still just 21-years-old and continued to develop as a player. He also won the 2021 NBA Slam Dunk Contest – not particularly important but it’s a testament to his bonkers athletic capability.
The 2020-21 Trail Blazers entered the postseason with their main three stars healthy, Lillard, McCollum, and Nurkic. Also at their disposal were trade acquisitions Norman Powell and Robert Covington, both brought in to make an instant impact. Carmelo Anthony also came off of the bench as a key six man. Meanwhile, the Nuggets were missing both of their starting guards and thus entered the series with a backcourt of Facundo Campazzo and Austin Rivers. Nonetheless, the Nuggets won the series in six games despite a heroic effort from Lillard.
It was arguably the most embarrassing moment of the Lillard era in Portland, up there with the first-round sweep to the hands of the New Orleans Pelicans in 2018. The offseason was full of noise on Lillard potentially wanting out – if a fully healthy and tooled Portland squad lost to a hobbled Nuggets team despite Lillard averaging an efficient 34/10, clearly they weren’t even close to truly competing.
While Lillard has thus far stuck around, a lingering abdomen injury prevented him from maintaining his previous peak level of play and he has been sidelined indefinitely after receiving surgery. McCollum was traded to the New Orleans Pelicans in the middle of his eighth season with the Blazers. It was already clear at this point that the Blazers’ season was over, but the silver lining was that Anfernee Simons would finally have a chance to lead the team for longer than one meaningless game at the end of his rookie season.
Since Lillard’s last appearance on the court (December 31st), the 22-year-old Simons has played (and started) 24 games. He’s averaging 23.6 points and 6.0 assists per game while shooting 42.2% from three with a true shooting percentage of 61.4%. This stretch includes a blistering 43-point game in a close win over the Hawks, a clutch 29 in a nailbiter finish against LeBron’s Lakers, and a three game stretch of 30, 30, and 31 in wins over the Knicks, Bucks, and Grizzlies.
In this span, Simons also averaged more potential assists than playmakers like LaMelo Ball, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Josh Giddey. According to tracking data, Simons drove to the hoop 10.4 times per game in this stretch. Among other players with at least 10 drives per game, Simons’ had the seventh-best FG% behind DeMar DeRozan, Chris Paul, De’Aaron Fox, Jrue Holiday, Miles Bridges, and Dejounte Murray. Not bad company.
So, what’s so special about Simons? The numbers make it clear that his most impressive characteristic is his perimeter jump shooting. Over the past two seasons, Simons has quickly become one of the league’s premier spot-up shooters.
Among players with at least 50 catch-and-shoot 3PA, Simons’ boasts the third-highest C&S 3P% behind Joe Harris and Tony Snell. His efficiency on these shots is comparable to players like Zach LaVine and Seth Curry on similar volume. Oh, and he’s substantially older than anyone else labeled on the chart – LaVine is the second-youngest and is still four years older than Simons.
The impressive thing is that the bulk of Simons’ volume comes from games with Lillard and/or McCollum out and Simons expected to carry a heavy scoring load on a tanking roster as a 22-year-old. And he’s somehow pulling through!
We can also evaluate the change in Simons’ on-court impact with the use of an all-in-one lineup-based impact metric such as Estimated Plus-Minus, which is generally considered one of the better performing public metrics of its kind.
Since becoming a rotational player in his second season, Simons’ offensive EPM has steadily improved to +2.5 this season, which ranks in the 94th percentile of NBA players. His composite EPM has reached the positives for the first time in his career despite still being one of the worst defenders in the league statistically.
That’s obviously the elephant in the room – despite Simons becoming a truly elite offensive talent while being just 22-years-old, one can’t really ignore that he’s still a defensive liability. The bright side is that he doesn’t really lack the length to be a disruptive defender – he’s 6’4 with a solid 6’9 wingspan, he just has a slender frame at this point in time which isn’t surprising given his young age. If he can widen out and withstand more contact, there might be hope for Simons to reach average levels on defense – or even the level of a guy like Damian Lillard who’s below average but good enough offensively to make up for it (and then some). There isn’t really an excuse for him to continue being as bad defensively as he is now.
A big concern with Simons on the offensive end is his inability to get to the line. I also would hope that this improves as he bulks up – he isn’t able to seek out and absorb the contact around the rim necessary to consistently get to the line. NBA fans often forget that drawing fouls is a skill, one that some players are never able to master. Take CJ McCollum for example – he’s one of the more skilled one-on-one scorers in the league, but never being able to consistently get free throws at any point in his career severely limited his potential. One can only hope that Simons will be able to turn the tide on that aspect of his game.
In any case, his shooting ability genuinely seems generational and I could see him becoming a record-breaking shooter in his prime. The sky is the limit for his offensive game, and we can only hope that he’ll be able to patch up the holes in his game to unlock his potential as a player. While he clearly has some glaring weaknesses, he’s further along at 22-years-old than realistic projections expected. It’s hard not to be excited for his future.
sick